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GOP Candidates to Throw in the Towel...

9/16/2015

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Anyone who follows the sport of boxing has witnessed a fight where a boxer is hit hard, where he is "knocked out on his feet". The fighter continues to fight though he is clearly out of it. His pride makes him continue to absorb punishment. He helps no one, has no chance to win and runs the risk of permanent injury. The people around the fighter are expected to tell him between rounds that it is time to quit. If necessary they may need to throw in the towel, an act intended to stop the fight.
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Sometimes the people who work for the fighter are so caught up in the moment they don't see how damaged their man is. Sometimes they are too scared to speak up. Either way, the combination of his pride and their inability to stop the fight usually ends up ugly.

In the GOP race for the 2016 Presidential nomination there are a number of combatants that are clearly out of the fight. With the second debate, current financial reporting and daily polls demonstrating clearly who has no shot, someone in their corner needs to step up.

There are the obvious cases. Governor Jim Gilmore has nearly no name recognition among voters. He never stood a chance. Former Senator Rick Santorum hoped to capitalize on what he referred to as his second-place finish last time around, but has raised little money and even less attention. Lindsay Graham should be embarrassed. In his own home state of South Carolina he only gets 3% support for President. If there was ever a clear sign it was time to hang it up, that should be it.

There are others that have obvious signs as well. Governor Bobby Jindal has all the makings of a great President. Successful Governor, gifted orator, strong conservative credentials…and yet he can't break the 1% mark. No money, no support, no traction. No reason to continue your campaign.

For George Pataki, former Governor of New York, one wonders why he got in at all. He entered late and will exit early.

All of the above names were relegated to the "JV" debates and all have no shot whatsoever at the nomination. There are some in the debate main event too however, that don't seem to be aware their campaign is over. 

First among them is Rand Paul. Extremely intelligent and strong on conservative issues, Senator Paul is lacking in the warm fuzzy category. Never underestimate the importance of being likable. The Rand Paul that appears annoyed with the media and that looked angry in the first debate hasn't proven to be likable to the American public. His poll numbers are down as is staff morale. They seem to know, though no one is saying it, but Paul's attention should be spent on getting re-elected to the Senate from Kentucky. He's needed there. 

There are a couple candidates that aren't completely out yet, but if the public is underwhelmed by their second debate performance, they will be. Those include Governor Scott Walker and former Governor Mike Huckabee.

Walker jumped to the lead in the polls when he announced, but has steadily been in decline since. The reality of politics is that if you're 10th in the polls you can't raise money, and with no money, you are unlikely to run an effective campaign. You can't pay staff, pay for travel or buy advertising. If the public doesn't think Walker's second debate performance was a home run, he is all done.

The bottom line is this. The GOP has a deep bench in 2016, but political reality is that it's time to start winnowing the field. Rick Perry is already out and is likely to be joined on the sidelines by at least half a dozen more in the next 10 days. If the struggling candidates don't already know that, hopefully their staff will speak up and let them know it's time to throw in the towel.

When the field narrows, there will be a better opportunity for those still standing to make the case why he or she is the best candidate. With voters unhappy with the status quo that could prove to be very interesting.

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Black Lives Matter are Terrorists

9/2/2015

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When the twin towers of the World Trade Center fell in 2001 broadcast media shared video of people in the Middle East dancing in the streets. They were celebrating the deaths of thousands of Americans.

Residents of the USA, already reeling from this unprovoked attack, were dumbfounded. Who celebrates tragedy? Who celebrates senseless death? Who threatens to do more such mayhem? Savages. Barbarians. Terrorists.

The dictionary defines terrorism as someone who uses violent action, or threats of violent action, for political purposes. Unfortunately we don't have to look to the Middle East anymore to find real life evidence of terrorism.
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Right here in the United States there is a group called Black Lives Matter. On Saturday participants in a Black Lives Matter protest march at the Minnesota State Fair chanted "pigs in a blanket, fry 'em like bacon,” an apparent advocacy of violence against police. This came less than 24 hours after a white Harris County Texas Deputy was shot in the back of the head, and then shot a total of 15 times while filling his patrol car with gas. A suspect has been arrested. The suspect is black. 

Similar chants threatening or advocating violence against law enforcement have been heard in Baltimore, St. Louis, Atlanta and various other places. These chants are lead by the organizers of the events. In Ferguson, Missouri they roasted a pig, put a police hat on it and labeled it Darren Wilson. The events have been organized by Black Lives Matter. No spokesperson for the organization has denounced the calls for attacks on police.

Also within hours of the execution style shooting of the deputy, a young Texas woman went on social media and took two actions. First she praised Black Lives Matter. Then minutes later she posted the following “I can’t believe so many people care about a dead cop and NO ONE has thought what he did to deserve it. He had creepy perv eyes.” Like those overseas folks who celebrated on September 11, there are some here in the US that are celebrating when an innocent cop is slaughtered.

Fanatics believe their cause trumps all and have no regard for the rights or concerns of others. Black Lives Matter clearly falls into this category. Their chosen method of communicating to the public is to interrupt high profile public events. During one such interruption of a Democratic presidential candidate's event, the group chanted “Black Lives Matter. Black Lives Matter” repeatedly. When the candidate agreed with them, but broadened the discussion to say that ALL lives matter, he was booed and forced to apologize. Apparently to Black Lives Matter, whether or not your life matters is determined by the color of your skin.

Some reasonable questions: When a shooting involving a white police officer and a black suspect occurs, why is racism immediately assumed? Conversely when a black suspect guns down an unsuspecting white policeman, husband and father of two, why are we told not to assume racism played any role? It’s an amazing double standard.

If the criteria for being considered a terrorist group is someone who uses violent action, or threats of violent action, for political purposes, Black Lives Matter is clearly a terrorist group. If they actually hope to achieve racial harmony the organization needs to immediately renounce violence and work with law enforcement to find common ground. If instead they continue to poison the atmosphere with calls for violent acts against the men and women who serve and protect us, we must call Black Lives Matter what they are, Terrorists.

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2016 Presidential Race: Buckle Up for the Wild Ride

8/25/2015

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As soon as the 2014 midterm elections were complete the media turned an eye toward 2016 and the US Presidential race. With a two year window, pundits gleefully declared that Hillary Clinton was inevitable as the Democratic nomination and the Jeb Bush was the likely GOP nominee.

The American public collectively groaned. Tired of politics as usual, poll after poll showed the American people were not enthusiastic about another ballot featuring the name Clinton and the name Bush. Yet the mainstream media persisted. It was essentially a done deal.
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Now less than one year before the respective 2016 party conventions conventional wisdom seems to have been turned on it’s head. Self proclaimed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is drawing tens of thousands of Democrat supporters while Hillary struggles to attract a crowd and refuses to talk with the media. Sanders is actually beating Clinton in polls in the first primary state of New Hampshire, where local party leaders are declining to endorse Hillary.

Vice President Joe Biden, seeing Hillary’s repeated campaign stumbles and the political reality of her home brewed email server scandal, appears to be ready to jump in and may be uniquely positioned to rocket to the lead.

Bottom line, Hillary not only isn’t inevitable, her campaign is in real trouble. Political campaigns are often determined by momentum and she has established an amazing downward spiral.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was never termed inevitable, but was pegged by many to be the man to beat. With a field of 17 however, his numbers have never taken off. At this point in the 2000 GOP race George W. Bush had 56% support among likely Republican voters. Jeb is mired in the 10% range.

Enter billionaire businessman Donald Trump. Trump’s no holds barred style and complete lack of political correctness has turned the party on it’s ear. He has pointed out  the charismatically challenged Bush is a “low energy guy”. Political newcomer Ben Carson is actually polling higher than Bush in many polls.

If Hillary and Jeb haven’t been anointed, who is in and who is out at this point? On the Democratic side, O’Malley, Webb and Chaffee are done before they’ve even started. Lincoln Chaffee has become the butt of an ongoing joke on the Conan O’Brien show, where the late night comic has set a goal of getting the Rhode Island pol above 1% in the polls. If that’s not a dead campaign, it’s tough to think what is. 

Among the Republicans there are several dead on arrival candidates. Rick Santorum George Pataki and Lindsey Graham have no chance at all. Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry are both very well qualified yet both will be watching from the sidelines next year. None of those five ever registered any meaningful numbers in the polls. 

The sixth name on the GOP “out” list is more surprising. Rand Paul’s campaign is fading away. While the Senator is likely to stay in for a couple more debates, several missteps plus a poor first debate have all but assured he will be on the ballot in Kentucky for US Senate next fall.

The 2016 race is turning out to be a fascinating one. Will it all shake out and settle down to a more traditional look by February in time for the primary season? Buckle up, sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. No one really knows.

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    Tim Constantine

    Tim Constantine is a political and broadcasting veteran. He was a  Political Science major at the University of Southern Maine, was twice elected to public office and has been a top ranked broadcaster in multiple markets.

    The Capitol Hill Show with Tim Constantine is not only seen in the United States, it broadcasts on television in 119 countries worldwide. Tim's guests include some of America's highest profile public officials. 

    Tim Constantine's Capitol Hill Show (radio) broadcasts daily from Washington DC and is heard throughout the country.

    Constantine also partners with The Washington Times on a variety of projects, including a weekly column. 

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