| As soon as the 2014 midterm elections were complete the media turned an eye toward 2016 and the US Presidential race. With a two year window, pundits gleefully declared that Hillary Clinton was inevitable as the Democratic nomination and the Jeb Bush was the likely GOP nominee. The American public collectively groaned. Tired of politics as usual, poll after poll showed the American people were not enthusiastic about another ballot featuring the name Clinton and the name Bush. Yet the mainstream media persisted. It was essentially a done deal. |  |
Now less than one year before the respective 2016 party conventions conventional wisdom seems to have been turned on it’s head. Self proclaimed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is drawing tens of thousands of Democrat supporters while Hillary struggles to attract a crowd and refuses to talk with the media. Sanders is actually beating Clinton in polls in the first primary state of New Hampshire, where local party leaders are declining to endorse Hillary.
Vice President Joe Biden, seeing Hillary’s repeated campaign stumbles and the political reality of her home brewed email server scandal, appears to be ready to jump in and may be uniquely positioned to rocket to the lead.
Bottom line, Hillary not only isn’t inevitable, her campaign is in real trouble. Political campaigns are often determined by momentum and she has established an amazing downward spiral.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was never termed inevitable, but was pegged by many to be the man to beat. With a field of 17 however, his numbers have never taken off. At this point in the 2000 GOP race George W. Bush had 56% support among likely Republican voters. Jeb is mired in the 10% range.
Enter billionaire businessman Donald Trump. Trump’s no holds barred style and complete lack of political correctness has turned the party on it’s ear. He has pointed out the charismatically challenged Bush is a “low energy guy”. Political newcomer Ben Carson is actually polling higher than Bush in many polls.
If Hillary and Jeb haven’t been anointed, who is in and who is out at this point? On the Democratic side, O’Malley, Webb and Chaffee are done before they’ve even started. Lincoln Chaffee has become the butt of an ongoing joke on the Conan O’Brien show, where the late night comic has set a goal of getting the Rhode Island pol above 1% in the polls. If that’s not a dead campaign, it’s tough to think what is.
Among the Republicans there are several dead on arrival candidates. Rick Santorum George Pataki and Lindsey Graham have no chance at all. Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry are both very well qualified yet both will be watching from the sidelines next year. None of those five ever registered any meaningful numbers in the polls.
The sixth name on the GOP “out” list is more surprising. Rand Paul’s campaign is fading away. While the Senator is likely to stay in for a couple more debates, several missteps plus a poor first debate have all but assured he will be on the ballot in Kentucky for US Senate next fall.
The 2016 race is turning out to be a fascinating one. Will it all shake out and settle down to a more traditional look by February in time for the primary season? Buckle up, sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. No one really knows.
Vice President Joe Biden, seeing Hillary’s repeated campaign stumbles and the political reality of her home brewed email server scandal, appears to be ready to jump in and may be uniquely positioned to rocket to the lead.
Bottom line, Hillary not only isn’t inevitable, her campaign is in real trouble. Political campaigns are often determined by momentum and she has established an amazing downward spiral.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was never termed inevitable, but was pegged by many to be the man to beat. With a field of 17 however, his numbers have never taken off. At this point in the 2000 GOP race George W. Bush had 56% support among likely Republican voters. Jeb is mired in the 10% range.
Enter billionaire businessman Donald Trump. Trump’s no holds barred style and complete lack of political correctness has turned the party on it’s ear. He has pointed out the charismatically challenged Bush is a “low energy guy”. Political newcomer Ben Carson is actually polling higher than Bush in many polls.
If Hillary and Jeb haven’t been anointed, who is in and who is out at this point? On the Democratic side, O’Malley, Webb and Chaffee are done before they’ve even started. Lincoln Chaffee has become the butt of an ongoing joke on the Conan O’Brien show, where the late night comic has set a goal of getting the Rhode Island pol above 1% in the polls. If that’s not a dead campaign, it’s tough to think what is.
Among the Republicans there are several dead on arrival candidates. Rick Santorum George Pataki and Lindsey Graham have no chance at all. Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry are both very well qualified yet both will be watching from the sidelines next year. None of those five ever registered any meaningful numbers in the polls.
The sixth name on the GOP “out” list is more surprising. Rand Paul’s campaign is fading away. While the Senator is likely to stay in for a couple more debates, several missteps plus a poor first debate have all but assured he will be on the ballot in Kentucky for US Senate next fall.
The 2016 race is turning out to be a fascinating one. Will it all shake out and settle down to a more traditional look by February in time for the primary season? Buckle up, sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. No one really knows.
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